IE 8550 Fall 2024
Homework 5
(a deliverable within Module 5)
Due: Monday, October 21 at 11:59pm (EDT)
Risk Analysis Simulation
For Exercise 8 in Chapter 11, you must answer the following questions:
a) Create a simulation model of this project network. Then run the model for 10
replications. How many simulation replications are required in order to have a margin of
error on mean project duration of less than 2 days (given 90% confidence)?
b) For both 50 replications and 500 replications, simulate the project network again.
a. What is the mean duration of the project (as well as standard deviation and margin
of error)?
b. What is the duration of the project with 90% confidence?
c. How often is task H on the critical path?
d. How often is task E on the critical path?
e. How often is task G on the critical path?
You do NOT need to complete the original Exercise 11.8. You should use the project network
and activity information to build your risk analysis model in Primavera, and then answer
questions (a) and (b)
Conduct the analysis using Primavera Risk Analysis. Please assume a 7-day workweek instead
of the default five days’ workweek in Primavera Risk Analysis. To do so, you can follow one
of these two options:
1. main menu/plan/plan options/Default Task/ Calendar / change the calendar from
“standard” to “7 Day”
2. main menu/plan/calendars/workweek/ you need to check all the days here for the
“standard” calendar
Provide answers in an Excel file as well as turning in your files from Primavera Risk Analysis.
Use Canvas to submit the assignment. You will find the upload link on the Assignments page.